Radical Transformation in a Distributed Society - Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios 2050

Abstract

<p>This working paper presents four transformative scenarios of Neo-Carbon Energy, a research project exploring the futures of an economy based on a new energy system and peer-to-peer society in 2050. The project is one of the strategic research openings of Tekes – the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation.</p><p>The neo-carbon scenarios envision possible futures in which renewable energy is produced in a distributed manner, and in which energy is low-cost, or even no-cost. In each scenario energy is produced mainly by solar and wind and stored in batteries, synthetic methane, and other synthetic hydrocarbons. Renewable energy is used for economic activities, and carbon dioxide from the air is used as a source for plastics, chemicals and medicine. As a whole, this would transform the economy and change its energy system into one that is emissions-free, efficient, low-cost, and sustainable.</p><p>The scenarios have been formed using two axes and their opposite values. The X axis is called “Peer-to-peer” and its end values are Corporate (“centralised”) peer-to-peer and Neo-Communal (distributed) peer-to-peer. The Y axis is called “Ecological awareness” and its end values are Pragmatic ecology and Deep ecology. The resulting four scenarios are called “Radical Startups”, “Value-Driven Techemoths”, “Green DIY Engineers” and “New Consciousness”. The scenarios consist of three different components: a scenario narrative, the role of energy in the scenario and a pathway for Finland until the year 2050. The energy solutions and business practices can vary from scenario to scenario, and also the neo-carbon system itself can be realized in different ways.</p><p>Radical Startups. Economy is driven by networks of startup enterprises. Startups are usually communities-cum-companies, and there are no clear lines between work and leisure, and between different startups. Energy production is highly distributed, and many startups have specialised in energy – and especially in energy services.</p><p>Value-Driven Techemoths. Economy is dominated by a few technology giants or “techemoths”, which offer resources, facilities, and platforms for self-organising employees, as well as all the basic amenities from housing to leisure to education. Techemoths have invested in bold R&D projects, especially in energy, and have a central role in developing the energy infrastructure.</p><p>Green DIY Engineers. Society is organized around thriving local communities to survive an ecological collapse. Do-It-Yourself economy and practical mindsets flourish, and smart scarcity have ensured many communities a relative abundance. Energy is produced mostly locally and communities are largely self-sufficient.</p><p>New Consciousness. Robotisation and ubiquitous ICTs have developed the farthest. Society is organized as global collaboration through open sharing of resources and information. Humans share a collective tech-enabled consciousness through omnipresent communications, virtual reality, and rudimentary brain-to-brain communication. Energy systems are both distributed and centralized.</p><p>These four scenarios provide a holistic framework that describes the Neo-Carbon Energy world in 2050. As so-called metascenarios, this framework can be further utilised to make more detailed observations of alternative futures on the themes of renewable energy and peer-to-peer systems from different viewpoints, to address several, more specific questions. Therefore, scenarios are specific testbeds for future worlds. These Neo-Carbon Energy scenarios are tested through futures cliniques and other workshops, such as a gaming session that utilised the causal layered analysis (CLA) method.1 The potential of futures based on neo-carbon energy is also intended to be explored in the context of the case countries of this project.2</p><p>The aim of scenario construction is to support decision-making. The relevance and usability of scenarios is dependent on how the pathways envisioned in them are translated to experts across fields, policy-makers, and ordinary citizens. It is also important to identify pioneering actors in the scenarios that can actually make them to be realised. For this purpose, a related actor analysis has been conducted (Similä et al. 2016). As socio-cultural scenarios about energy, their significance to economy and the energy landscape is further reflected in an analysis about future electricity markets (Salovaara et al. 2016). Transformative foresight characterizes the different future alternatives envisioned in these scenarios. As a tool of science-communication, they explore possible futures and related changes, that are radically different from the present, influenced by technology and the choices we make, as actors in our society.</p><p>Moving towards a neo-carbonized world provides room for businesses to innovate. Emerging needs, some of which are outlined in the scenarios, result from values and lifestyles that are changing, the falling costs of renewable energy, and the emergence of novel technologies. New products and services, not to forget social practices, can span from simple ideas to complex solutions. Space for new opportunities is created, and as a consequence, entirely new industrial structures could emerge to transform the economy.</p>