China’s Riskisation : China’s Approaches to Sanctioned Petrostates, Cases of Russia, Iran and Venezuela

Abstract

In this study, the author attempted to explain what drives China to provide a lifeline to the sanctioned regimes of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. By employing the offensive realism theory and SWOT analysis method, the author explored the dynamics between China and the three sanctioned petrostates in three dimensions: (1) energy security, (2) strategic security and military cooperation, and (3) banking and financial security. By exploring the three areas of bilateral cooperation, the author also explained why China was ready to go beyond cooperation in energy sector with the three countries despite the risks of worsening foreign relations with the wealthiest and most technologically advanced nations, such as the USA and its allies. In the anarchic international system with no higher authority above states, supporting the three sanctioned petrostates enables China to maximize its relative power vis-à-vis the USA, and by maximizing its relative power, China ultimately increases chances of its survival in the intensifying Sino-US security competition. The novation of this study is the attempt to incorporate financial and banking security into a broader context of China’s national security. The author also explained to what extent China was ready to accept risks and which risks would rather avoid. Speaking more broadly, the author attempted to describe the risk management policies employed by the Chinese leadership in foreign relations. The authors has concluded that China still remains susceptible to the US pressure and the threat of secondary sanctions. By explaining why China is ready to support these rogue states, the author has attempted to place himself in the shoes of the Chinese leadership, who are deeply concerned about China’s survival, and to enable readers’ understanding of China’s calculus behind these decisions. Hopefully, a better understanding of China’s motives will allow to make more informed decisions in foreign policies vis-à-vis China in the future.